But be aware that we have not calculated the probability of a home win, nor have we estimated the minimum profitable odds, and we have also not taken into account the odds, to decide if we bet or not. It is a good result for a strategy built in a few minutes. So, let’s analyse whether this system will obtain long term winnings? We can evaluate the p-value with this p-value calculator, that is, the probability of obtaining such yield just by luck. I changed the number of consecutive matches and number of goals several times before obtaining a profitable strategy, so could the final system have been a result of “ data-mining” or “ overfitting”? These factors first need to be taken into account to conclude if the positive results may have been achieved by simple luck or variance. You can check the strategy here ( Home revenge): But these specific rules have produced only 719 bets (of 73009 matches between 20, a 1%). This strategy would have obtained a profit of 55 units at average odds of 2.95 with a yield of 7.66%. We can check the “backtest” of this method with the results and odds of the database, for the period of the last five years (2016 to 2020).

If both conditions are fulfilled, then bet for the home team, no matter the odds.The away team has not scored >2 goals in its last 3 away matches.A team that hasn’t won any of the last 3 games in a row when playing at home.We can do this very fast with Betaminic and its Betamin Builder tool.

In order to perform your backtest, you can establish a set of rules that must be fulfilled in order to bet. There are several free sources for all of this data, like betexplorer, oddsportal, football-data and tennis-data, flashscore… You can build your database from them. Just be sure that the odds are accurate, and that they would have existed for enough time to place your bets. Regarding the odds, which odds do we need? Opening odds? Closing odds? 1h before the match? The maximum/minimum value between opening and closing? From how many bookmakers? A simple answer: the more, the better (in Spain we say, the more sugar, the sweeter).

Date, so that your events can be ordered in time.

You will need a sports events database with at least: In this article, I will explain other ways of testing your skill and designing a betting strategy by following one of these three methods:Ī backtest is a way of testing your method with past data.

Betting with a small bankroll (or no bankroll, logging ‘fake’ bets in a spreadsheet).

In our previous article, we introduced three ways of testing your skill in sports betting:

How to start a sports betting system